In the Chinese zodiac the year of the Water Dragon is an incredibly positive sign – signifying strength, dominance and ambition. But it is perhaps the characteristics of uncertainty, transition and change, also associated with this sign, which managers will most recognise this business year. For many, 2012 will be about effective change management and keeping a steady nerve in what will be another turbulent year. 

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A couple of weeks ago we hosted a roundtable, together with the Turnaround Management Association (TMA) UK, where we invited experts from the turnaround and private equity industry to discuss lessons from 2011 and predictions for 2012.

A few observations stood out and we thought these worth sharing:

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We have witnessed the steady rise of the so-called zombie companies over the past two years. What comes through from this announcement, and when we talk to companies locked in this situation and potential funders, is the need for a strong, viable business plan.

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I had the opportunity in two successive days this week to walk London’s West End and the centre of Bristol (certainly one of the UK’s more significant high streets). Whilst the comparison between the two will always be chalk and cheese, my Bristol experience was particularly illuminating.

Oxford Street was Oxford Street. Shoppers crowded onto the pavements and (particularly) the department stores packed out. Surprising or not surprising depending upon which way you look at things but certainly not likely to be a true barometer of Christmas 2011 on the high street.

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"Something is getting in the way of the process of "creative destruction" usually associated with recessions – the natural market mechanisms that would allow one generation of companies to be replaced by another. Capital should get reallocated from non-traded goods and services to tradeables when the exchange rate falls as it has, but that's not happened.

"The fact that banks dare not recognise large tracts of what are effectively bad debts – this is especially the case in overborrowed commercial property – for fear of the damage it would inflict on solvency may help explain why things aren't changing more swiftly. Britain has become a zombie economy. Capital is no longer being allocated efficiently."

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